{"id":11447,"date":"2026-09-18T07:26:07","date_gmt":"2026-09-18T05:26:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/?p=11447"},"modified":"2026-09-18T07:26:07","modified_gmt":"2026-09-18T05:26:07","slug":"articolo-su-machine-learning-with-applications","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/en\/articolo-su-machine-learning-with-applications\/","title":{"rendered":"Articolo su &#8220;Machine Learning with Applications&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Pubblicato in open-access sulla rivista <em>Machine Learning with Applications (Elsevier) <\/em>l&#8217;articolo <strong>&#8220;Risk-adjusted policy learning and the social cost of uncertainty: Theory and evidence from CAP evaluation&#8221; <\/strong>a cura di Giovanni Cerulli e Federico Caracciolo (Universit\u00e0 degli Studi di Napoli Federico II)<\/p>\n<p><em>The paper extends Optimal Policy Learning (OPL) to settings where policymakers care not only about maximizing expected welfare, but also about risk and uncertainty.\u00a0Building on Roy\u2019s safety-first principle, we develop a risk-adjusted policy learning framework that explicitly balances expected outcomes against the risk of undesirable realizations. We apply the approach to EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies using Italian FADN microdata.\u00a0The broader message is simple: good policy targeting should consider not only who is expected to benefit most, but also how uncertain those benefits are.\u00a0A step toward making policy learning more useful for real-world decisions under uncertainty.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>#MachineLearning #PolicyEvaluation #Agriculture #CAP #DataScience #Research #OpenScience<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11449\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11449\" style=\"width: 608px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-11449\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cerulliottobre26.jpg\" alt=\"cerulliottobre26\" width=\"608\" height=\"427\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cerulliottobre26.jpg 845w, https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cerulliottobre26-300x211.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cerulliottobre26-768x539.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 608px) 100vw, 608px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11449\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">cerulliottobre26<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pubblicato in open-access sulla rivista Machine Learning with Applications (Elsevier) l&#8217;articolo &#8220;Risk-adjusted policy learning and the social cost of uncertainty:&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11449,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[68],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pubblicazioni"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11447","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11447"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11447\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11450,"href":"https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11447\/revisions\/11450"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11449"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11447"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11447"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ircres.cnr.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11447"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}