Different waves and different policy interventions in 2020 Covid-19 in Italy: did they bring different results?*

Mario Nosvelli

CNR-IRCrES, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerca sulla Crescita Economica Sostenibile, Italy

Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milan (Italy)

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Abstract

Covid-19 pandemic hit very harshly Italy in two waves: the first can be temporally placed in spring and the second between autumn and winter. Data shows some relevant differences among the two phases, in particular, the first wave caused less infection but with a higher lethality rate. These differences in epidemic and social conditions in the two phases suggested a change in the strategy of containment measures: stricter and homogeneous in the first wave, flexible and diversified in the second wave. The interrupted analysis applied to daily data of new infected shows positive results for both interventions in flattening the infection curve. Both policies achieved almost the same percentage of positives cases avoided. For this reason, these measures seem rightly tuned, in both cases, to the specific epidemic and social conditions of each wave.

Keywords: restriction measures, health policy evaluation, interrupted time series, Covid-19.

DOI: 10.23760/2421-7158.2021.005

How to Cite this Article

Nosvelli, M. (2021). Different waves and different policy interventions in 2020 Covid-19 in Italy: did they bring different results? (CNR-IRCrES Working Paper 5/2021). Istituto di Ricerca sulla Crescita Economica Sostenibile. Disponibile da http://dx.doi.org/10.23760/2421-7158.2021.005  

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* Thanks to S. Mantecchi and A. Pagani for data set assessment.