Working Paper CNR-Ircres 7/2021                      
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Covid-19 e rischio di insolvenza: il punto di vista del mercato azionario

Franco Varetto

CNR-IRCrES, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerca sulla Crescita Economica Sostenibile, Italia

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The Covid-19 pandemic has been a big shock for economic systems. Governments and Central Banks quickly got fundamental decisions to counteract the main effects of the pandemic. Here the increase of default risk of Italian industrial corporates is studied. The perspective adopted is that of stock market: effectively the share prices have been deeply affected by the pandemic and this research has used data from 69 Italian listed companies. The probabilities of default of these firms have been estimated with the recourse to the Merton’s model and its adaptation from KMV. Statistical results show a significant rise of the credit risk metrics in 2020’s early months, followed then by a fast recovery.

Keywords: Credit Risk, Probability of default, Stock prices, Merton’s Model

JEL codes: E44, G12, G13, G32, G33, I18

DOI: 10.23760/2421-7158.2021.007


How to Cite this Article

Varetto, F. (2021). Covid-19 e rischio di insolvenza: il punto di vista del mercato azionario (CNR-IRCrES Working Paper 7/2021). Istituto di Ricerca sulla Crescita Economica Sostenibile. Disponibile da





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