Quaderni IRCrES 25 – Capitolo 5
Capitolo 5
Trasparenza istituzionale e aspettative di disoccupazione. Teoria ed evidenza comparata dai paesi mediterranei e dai lavoratori maturi*
Institutional transparency and unemployment expectations. Theory and comparative evidence from Mediterranean countries and mature workers
Luca Vota
CNR-ISMed, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche – Istituto di Studi sul Mediterraneo, via Cardinale
Guglielmo Sanfelice 8, 80134 Napoli, Italia
corresponding author: luca.vota@cnr.it
Abstract
The aim of this study is to identify the short- and long-run macroeconomic determinants of unemployment expectations in the presence of asymmetric information between public and private agents, informational shocks, and different degrees of transparency in institutional communication. To achieve this objective, a New Keynesian model with rational expectations is proposed, in which partially informed households and firms receive an informational signal that may be noisy, while the government and the central bank have access to a complete information set. The model is validated using time-series data for three Mediterranean countries (France, Italy, and Spain) and for older workers. The results show that, regardless of whether the Taylor principle is satisfied, if public agents transmit all available information to private agents without communicative ambiguity, the model admits a unique and stable equilibrium path along which the so-called
Transparency Paradox may emerge. Otherwise, the model’s dynamics become unpredictable in terms of the existence and multiplicity of equilibrium, and inflation expectations take on a potentially crucial role in determining the equilibrium. Appropriate policy recommendations are discussed.
Keywords: institutional communication, transparency, unemployment expectations, mature workers.
DOI: 10.23760/2499-6661.2026.25_05
ISBN: 978-88-98193-40-0
ISSN (online): 2499-6661
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How to Cite
Vota, L. (2026). Trasparenza istituzionale e aspettative di disoccupazione. Teoria ed evidenza comparata dai paesi mediterranei e dai lavoratori maturi. In D’Ascenzio, A., Errichiello, L., Falavigna, G., & Lamonica, V. (cur.). Mercato del lavoro e relazioni sociali dopo i 50. Riflessioni e politiche per il benessere in una società che invecchia (pp. 91-125). Quaderni IRCrES 25. CNR-IRCrES.
http://dx.doi.org/10.23760/2499-6661.2026.25_05
* Questo lavoro è stato realizzato nell’ambito del progetto finanziato da Next Generation EU – “Age-It – Ageing well in an ageing society” (PE0000015), CUP B83C22004880006 – Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR) – PE8 – Missione 4, Componente 2, Investimento 1.3. Le opinioni espresse sono esclusivamente degli autori e non riflettono necessariamente quelle dell’Unione Europea o della Commissione Europea. Né l’Unione Europea né la Commissione Europea possono essere ritenute responsabili dei contenuti qui riportati.