Covid-19 e rischio di insolvenza: il punto di vista del mercato azionario
Working Paper CNR-Ircres 7/2021
Covid-19 e rischio di insolvenza: il punto di vista del mercato azionario
Franco Varetto
CNR-IRCrES, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerca sulla Crescita Economica Sostenibile, Italia
Corresponding author: francoww@tin.it
Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic has been a big shock for economic systems. Governments and Central Banks quickly got fundamental decisions to counteract the main effects of the pandemic. Here the increase of default risk of Italian industrial corporates is studied. The perspective adopted is that of stock market: effectively the share prices have been deeply affected by the pandemic and this research has used data from 69 Italian listed companies. The probabilities of default of these firms have been estimated with the recourse to the Merton’s model and its adaptation from KMV. Statistical results show a significant rise of the credit risk metrics in 2020’s early months, followed then by a fast recovery.
Keywords: Credit Risk, Probability of default, Stock prices, Merton’s Model
JEL codes: E44, G12, G13, G32, G33, I18
DOI: 10.23760/2421-7158.2021.007
How to Cite this Article
Varetto, F. (2021). Covid-19 e rischio di insolvenza: il punto di vista del mercato azionario (CNR-IRCrES Working Paper 7/2021). Istituto di Ricerca sulla Crescita Economica Sostenibile. Disponibile da http://dx.doi.org/10.23760/2421-7158.2021.007